Basic time series analysis

The aim of this scenario is to present the steps required in JDemetra+ for identifying regression effects in a purely automatic way (i.e. using pre-defined specifications).

1. Go to the main menu and follow the path: Statistical methods → Anomaly Detection → Outliers Detection. JDemetra+ opens an empty Outliers Detection window.

   

   Activating the Outliers detection option

2. To display the default settings choose the Properties item from the Window menu. The default settings are visible in the Outliers Detection - Properties window. The user can modify the specification used for an outlier detection (Default Specification), use the default critical value for an outlier detection or change it (i.e. enter a new critical value into Critical Value. In the Outliers to display section one can decide which outliers take into account and choose the transformation type which is to be considered in the identification procedure.

   

   The settings for the outlier detection procedure

3. By default, the pre-defined TR4 specification will be used for time series modelling (click here to learn about the settings used for this specification or double click the TR4 item, which can be found in the Modelling → specifications → tramo branch of the Workspace window and study the settings in the TR4 window).

   

   Investigating the settings of a pre-defined specification

4. To change the specification click on the cell next to the Default Specification item and choose a specification from the list. You can change other settings similarly.

   

   The choice of the Default specification

5. To start the modelling, drag and drop the series from the Providers window to the Outliers detection window.

   

   Starting the outlier detection procedure

6. To display the results of the modelling, click on the time series header. JDemetra+ shows the results in the upper panel and the time series graph in the bottom panel. The results include selection criteria, estimated ARIMA model, identified outliers and calendar effects.

   

   Displaying the outlier detection results

The results presented in the Outliers Detection window cannot be saved in a JDemetra+ workspace.